Spatiotemporal Analysis for the Effect of Hydraulic Fracturing and Stroke in the United States

Abstract Hydraulic fracturing or fracking has led to a rapid growth of oil and gas production in the United States, but the impact of fracking on public health is an important but under-researched topic. We design a methodology to study spatio-temporal correlations between the risk of fracking and stroke mortality. An annualized loss expectancy (ALE) model is applied to quantify the risk of fracking. The Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is used to analyze spatio-temporal correlations of stroke mortality, fracking ALE, and nine other socioeconomic and health-related factors. The analysis shows that ALE from fracking is moderately correlated with stroke mortality at ages over 65 in most states of fracking, in addition to cardiovascular disease and drug overdose being positively correlated with stroke mortality. Furthermore, the correlations between fracking ALE and stroke mortality in men appear to be higher than in women near the Marcellus Shale, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Virginia, while stroke mortality among women is concentrated in the Great Plains, including Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. Lastly, within two kilometers of the fracking mining activity, it was found that the level of benzene in the air was significantly correlated with the fracking activity in Colorado.