Predicting Range Shifts Of The Chinese Monal (Lophophorus Lhuysii) Under Climate Change: Implications For Long-Term Conservation

Climate change drives remarkable shifts in species' geographical distribution range, representing one of the greatest threats to biodiversity worldwide. Alpine ecosystems haves been experiencing a faster climate warming rate than the global average, but knowledge regarding range shifts of alpine species under climate change is limited. Taking the Chinese monal (Lophophorus lhuysii), a vulnerable Galliform species inhabiting high elevations, as a representative, this study gathered available presence records of the Chinese monal and predicted its distribution range at present and in the 2050s and 2080s under different climate scenarios using MaxEnt models. The results revealed that the current distribution range of the Chinese monal is quite limited (19,371.51 km(2)) and will shift toward both higher elevation and higher latitude under future climate change. The range was predicted to decrease extensively and become more fragmented under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and its habitat quality will degenerate under all scenarios. Over 50% of the current distribution range is outside of existing nature reserves and the conservation gaps will also shift gradually. To cope with the threats of climate change, we propose some suggestions for long-term conservation of the Chinese monal, including an expansion and adjustment of the nature reserve network to fill current and future gaps in protection, the establishment of corridors to facilitate population dispersal and colonization, a call for more attention to marginal populations distributed at lower elevations, and the development of captive populations for assisted colonization and reintroduction in future. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.